Free Stock Options Probability Calculator

The Probability Calculator evaluates option prices to compute the theoretical probability of future stock prices. Data may be loaded for a symbol that has options, or data may be entered manually. To enter data for a specific symbol, enter a symbol in the text box labeled Symbol, then click Load Data for Symbol.

Data is delayed from September 18, 2024. You must subscribe to get the latest data.
	Symbol SPDR TRUST SR 1 ETF 561.40 -1.67   Wed, Sep 18 Price    Rate % Expiration  Sep 23 '24 Sep 24 '24 Sep 25 '24 Sep 26 '24 Sep 27 '24 Sep 30 '24 Oct 1 '24 Oct 2 '24 Oct 3 '24 Oct 4 '24 Oct 7 '24 Oct 8 '24 Oct 9 '24 Oct 10 '24 Oct 11 '24 Oct 14 '24 Oct 15 '24 Oct 16 '24 Oct 17 '24 Oct 18 '24 Oct 21 '24 Oct 22 '24 Oct 23 '24 Oct 25 '24 Oct 31 '24 Nov 1 '24 Nov 8 '24 Nov 15 '24 Nov 22 '24 Nov 29 '24 Dec 20 '24 Dec 31 '24 Jan 17 '25 Jan 31 '25 Feb 28 '25 Mar 21 '25 Mar 31 '25 Apr 17 '25 Jun 20 '25 Jun 30 '25 Aug 15 '25 Sep 19 '25 Sep 30 '25 Dec 19 '25 Jan 16 '26 Jun 18 '26 Dec 18 '26 Jan 15 '27   Days  Next Div Date  NTM Volatility Next Amt   Enter a Lower and Upper bound: Select strike  120 130 140 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 507.5 508 509 510 511 512 512.5 513 514 515 516 517 517.5 518 519 520 521 522 522.5 523 524 525 526 527 527.5 528 529 530 531 532 532.5 533 534 535 536 537 537.5 538 539 540 541 542 542.5 543 544 545 546 547 547.5 548 549 550 551 552 552.5 553 554 555 556 557 557.5 558 559 560 561 562 562.5 563 564 565 566 567 567.5 568 569 570 571 572 572.5 573 574 575 576 577 577.5 578 579 580 581 582 582.5 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 660 665 670 675 680 685 690 695 700 705 710 715 720 725 730 735 740 745 750 755 760 765 770 775 780 785 790 795 800 805 810 815 820 825 830 835 840 845 850 855 860 865 870 875 880 885 890 895 900 Select strike  120 130 140 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 507.5 508 509 510 511 512 512.5 513 514 515 516 517 517.5 518 519 520 521 522 522.5 523 524 525 526 527 527.5 528 529 530 531 532 532.5 533 534 535 536 537 537.5 538 539 540 541 542 542.5 543 544 545 546 547 547.5 548 549 550 551 552 552.5 553 554 555 556 557 557.5 558 559 560 561 562 562.5 563 564 565 566 567 567.5 568 569 570 571 572 572.5 573 574 575 576 577 577.5 578 579 580 581 582 582.5 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 660 665 670 675 680 685 690 695 700 705 710 715 720 725 730 735 740 745 750 755 760 765 770 775 780 785 790 795 800 805 810 815 820 825 830 835 840 845 850 855 860 865 870 875 880 885 890 895 900 Lower Bound   Upper Bound  Probability that the future price is Below Lower Bound Between Bounds Above Upper Bound 47.6580%   4.5385% 47.8036% The probability calculations are approximations and are subject to data errors, computation error, variations in prices, bid and ask spreads, interest rates, and future undeclared dividends. This calculator estimates the probability of future prices based on current market conditions or user entered data. Factors used as a basis for the probability computations are subject to change. Read the full disclaimer.	ATM Call Price 561.40 Expected Price  561.58 Std Deviation  8.79 Option Price  3.505 Implied Vol  0.149 Delta  0.503 Gamma  0.045 Rho  0.031 Theta  -0.438 Vega  0.234   Lower Bound (Put) Option Price  3.306 Implied Vol  0.149 Delta  -0.479 Gamma  0.045 Rho  -0.030 Theta  -0.437 Vega  0.234   Upper Bound (Call) Option Price  3.215 Implied Vol  0.149 Delta  0.476 Gamma  0.045 Rho  0.029 Theta  -0.438 Vega  0.234 Calculator Help

• Price - is the current Stock Price
• Days - is the number of days in the future for which the probability will be computed. Days can be calculated by selecting an Expiration Date. Days are counted starting from the most recent trading day.
• NTM Volatility - (Near The Money Volatility), is the implied volatility interpolated from current near term, near the money option contracts for the selected stock.
• Rate - is the approximate risk free interest rate.
• Next Dividend Date - The next ex-dividend date, which may be estimated from past dividend payments.
• Next Amt - is the amount of the next dividend, which may be estimated from past dividend payments.

Probabilities are computed assuming a lognormal distribution and a graph is provided. 

• Lower and Upper bounds may be entered in the text box or selected from the list of available strikes for the selected stock.
• The NTM Implied Volatility is used to compute option prices and greeks, which are displayed in the tables on the right. They are approximations and are not based on market data. 

Greeks are computed for theoretical options at the current price, lower bound, upper bound, and days left. The calculator will compute probabilities regardless of whether an actual contract with matching price, strike, and expiration exists. Computed Greeks are NOT based on current market data, and the results may not be consistent with volatility and pricing used in other features on this site. 

Probability calculations are approximations and are subject to data errors, computation errors. variations in prices, bid and ask spreads, interest rates, and future undeclared dividends. The calculator estimates the probability of future prices based on current market conditions or user entered data. Factors used as a basis for the probability computations are subject to change. Read the full disclaimer.